Chicago Fed Economic Model Sees U.S. Interest Rates High Enough to Tame Inflation While Avoiding Recession

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“We estimate that although the majority of the effects on output and inflation have already occurred, the policy tightening that has already been implemented will exert further restraint in the quarters ahead, amounting to downward pressure of about 3 percentage points on the level of real gross domestic product (GDP) and 2.5 percentage points on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) level,” they noted. “The abatement of inflation occurs without a recession, as real GDP growth remains in positive territory throughout the projection.”

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