BTC Price Set for Worst Q1 Since 2020 as Trump Approaches 100 Days

March 21, 2025 admin Cryptocurrency News 0
Fibo Quantum

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

With just over a week to go until the end of March, the first quarter has been disappointing, particularly in terms of price action rather than narrative for the crypto industry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10%, its worst first-quarter performance since 2020, and ether (ETH) has posted its weakest first quarter since inception. So far, bitcoin has been relatively steady in March.

Markets remain in the latter stages of President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, a period historically marked by uncertainty and volatility. This is expected to persist at least through the end of April.

As quarter-end approaches, negative liquidity and position management could lead to increased volatility and whipsaw price action, according to the London Crypto Club, founders of a trading newsletter.

Despite short-term weakness, the pair maintain a bullish outlook heading into the second quarter. A slightly more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its March meeting — even without actual rate cuts — combined with a weakening U.S. dollar, increased fiscal spending in the European Union and a U.S. economy that is slowing but not collapsing, are all factors they say will support a strong three months.

Bitcoin began to sell off on Thursday following Trump’s lack of a concrete update on a bitcoin strategic reserve or a tax-free crypto capital gains policy.

“Market participants were hoping for a tax-free capital gains framework or a bitcoin national reserve accumulation plan,” noted Blockhead Research Network (BRN). “Instead, Trump reiterated his general support for the crypto industry, highlighting the role of stablecoins in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. While supportive in the long term, the lack of immediate policy commitments is a short-term bearish signal.”

BRN sees digital assets struggling to sustain breakouts, with accumulation continuing at lower levels, particularly for altcoins.

“Despite near-term weakness, we recommend staying heavily invested, as the market could react swiftly to the next positive development. Support levels are not far from current prices,” BRN told CoinDesk in an email. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
  • Macro
    • March 23, 8:30 p.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) Japan March producer price index (PPI) data.
      • Composite PPI Prev. 52
      • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 49
      • Services PPI Prev. 53.7
    • March 24, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Flash) U.S. March producer price index (PPI) data.
      • Composite PPI Prev. 51.6
      • Manufacturing PPI Prev. 52.7
      • Services PPI Prev. 51
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
    • March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Aave DAO is discussing the activation of Aave Umbrella, a system meant to replace Aave Safety Module. It would enable users to stake their Aave aTokens to cover potential bad debt and earn rewards for it.
    • Sky DAO is voting on an executive proposal that would include a number of key initiatives, including implementing multiple rate changes, updating the Smart Burn Engine’s “hop” parameter, allocating 55,000 USDS for a bug bounty payout, transferring 3 million USDS for Integration Boost funding and triggering a Spark proxy spell, among other things.
    • Compound DAO is discussing the implementation of COMP Staker, a staking mechanism aimed at enhancing governance and participation from COMP holders. It would allow token holders to stake and delegate their votes to earn a share of protocol revenue.
    • March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.
    • March 25, 1 a.m.: Crypto.com to hold an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session with its co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek.
  • Unlocks
    • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $307.8 million.
    • March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.81 million.
    • April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $147.01 million.
    • April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $114.79 million.
    • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.81 million.
  • Token Listings
    • March 21: PancakeSwap (CAKE) to be listed on HashKey.
    • March 21: Orca (ORCA) to be listed on Upbit.
    • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Issuance platform Pump.Fun introduced its Pumpswap service on Thursday, allowing tokens made on the platform to be traded on the new service instead of decentralized exchange (DEX) Raydium, where they were previously listed.
  • Pump introduced a new fee structure, replacing the 6 SOL migration fee with a 0.25% trading fee.
  • It also has plans for a revenue sharing model that incentivizes creators to focus on long-term token growth by earning revenue on every trade, shifting away from the previous dump-on-buyers dynamic.
  • Pump.fun metrics show a decline in token launches and graduations, with 29,000 coins launched on March 8 but only 264 graduating and success rates — or the tokens listed on a DEX — dipping below 1%.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Bitcoin futures open interest has declined to 628,000 BTC from the weekly high of nearly 650,000 BTC alongside marginally positive perpetual funding rates. The combination indicates that BTC’s 24-hour price drop is largely characterized by unwinding of longs rather than new shorts.
  • Open interest in ETH futures, meanwhile, remains elevated at record highs above 10 million ETH in a sign traders are continuing to short a falling market.
  • XRM, BNB, TRX are standouts in the altcoin market, boasting a positive cumulative volume delta indicator for the past 24 hours. It’s a sign of net buying in these markets.
  • BTC’s short and near-dated options have flipped bearish, indicating renewed demand for puts out to the May end expiry. Ether puts are pricier than BTC.

Market Movements:

  • BTC is down 0.73% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $83,935.26 (24hrs: -1.43%)
  • ETH is down 1.19% at $1,960.00 (24hrs: -1.18%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.29% at 2,648.64 (24hrs: -2.08%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.06%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0108% (3.95% annualized) on Binance
  • DXY is up 0.16% at 104.02
  • Gold is down 0.12% at $3,033.22/oz
  • Silver is down 1.08% at $33.11/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed on Thursday -0.25% at 37,677.06
  • Hang Seng closed on Thursday -2.19% at 23,689.72
  • FTSE is down 0.49% at 8,659.67
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.76% at 5,410.04
  • DJIA closed on Thursday unchanged at 41,953.32
  • S&P 500 closed -0.22% at 5,662.89
  • Nasdaq closed -0.33% at 17,691.63
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 25,060.24
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.96% at 2,471.90
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.23%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.21% at 5,700.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 19,828.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19 at 42,204.00

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 61.52 (0.16%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02348 (-0.38%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $48.01
  • Total Fees: 5.47 BTC / $465,938
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 150,645 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 27.4 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 7.79%

Technical Analysis

XRP/ETH's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

XRP/ETH’s daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

  • The XRP/ETH daily chart shows the MACD histogram, a momentum indicator, has recently produced a lower high, diverging bearishly from the continued rise in the ratio.
  • The divergence suggests XRP may underperform ether in the coming days.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $302.07 (-0.71%), down 0.83% at $299.55 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $190.38 (+0.33%), down 0.76% at $188.93
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.15 (+2.54%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.50 (-0.24%), down 0.56% at $12.43
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.76 (-0.26%), down 0.13% at $7.75
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.59 (-1.04%), down 0.93% at $8.51
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.75 (-3.25%), down 0.77% at $7.69
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.98 (-1.45%)
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.82 (-3.05%)
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $48.51 (+19.04%), down 0.74% at $48.15

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

  • Daily net flow: $165.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $36.05 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1,120 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: -$12.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.45 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 3.452 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 digital assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

BTC options: 24-hour change in open interest. (Amberdata/Deribit)

BTC options: 24-hour change in open interest. (Amberdata/Deribit)

  • The number of active or open positions in the $100,000 strike call has decreased while open interest in lower strike calls between $85,000 and $90,000 has increased alongside renewed interest in protective puts at lower levels.
  • The data shows a cautious market sentiment.

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